One of the things I have learned in my time in
Washington, DC is that the New York Times is a reliable propaganda arm for the
DNC. So when the New York Times’ Nate
Cohn wrote this week “Goodbye
to the Republican Wave?” I knew they were writing to get the Democrat “spin”
out the election on two matters.
The first one is obvious.
Republicans aren’t going to do as well as they think, buck up
Democrats.
The anti-Democratic wave
might still arrive. But with three and a half months to go until November’s
elections, the promised Republican momentum has yet to materialize.
The race for the Senate, at
least right now, is stable.
This is funny as well; if the Republicans win, it is “Anti-Democrat”
(in other words failures of the Democrats to be liberal enough). And since when is “stable” a loss of multiple
Senate seats and control?
Fortunately, another non-propaganda source explains what
is happening in a more honest way in a National Journal Article entitled “The
Odds of a GOP Wave are Increasing”:
There's plenty of
race-by-race evidence to suggest that most contests are trending in a
Republican direction. Over the past several months, the Iowa and Colorado
Senate races have turned from long shots to promising Republican pickup
opportunities. In Iowa, Republican nominee Joni Ernst is running evenly with
Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in the Real Clear Politics polling average, a
marked shift over the last two months. And in Colorado, Democratic Sen. Mark
Udall only holds a 1-point average lead over GOP Rep. Cory Gardner, according to
RCP, in a race that's shaping up to be a barn burner.
And there isn't much
evidence that red-state Democrats have gained ground in recent months, either.
In Arkansas, reliable public polling has been sparse, but GOP Rep. Tom Cotton
has led Sen. Mark Pryor (D) in three straight public polls, along with the GOP
campaign's last two internals. Pryor didn't release any polling of his own to
counter. An April NYT/Upshot survey showing a double-digit Pryor lead, which
shaped public perception of the race, is now looking more like an outlier.
In Louisiana, Sen. Mary
Landrieu (D) has never hit 50 percent in any of the all-party primary surveys,
with most polls showing her well short of the mark.
But there is another second more insidious reason for the
article. The New York Times is trying to
frame a Republican victory as “not a wave.”
A “wave” election gives momentum to the winning party going forward for
its agenda and the next election. The
New York Times can’t let the GOP have legislative momentum. Fortunately National
Journal’s Josh Kraushaar explains the fallacy of this :
Cohn argues that if Republicans
merely sweep red-state Democratic seats and perhaps pick off a stray swing
seat, it's not a wave election—even if Republicans net seven seats on their way
to the majority. To accomplish that feat, Republicans would need to oust four
sitting Democratic senators. Over the last decade, Republicans have defeated
only three sitting senators (Tom Daschle in South Dakota, Russ Feingold in
Wisconsin, and Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas). Surely, a red-state sweep would
signify the conclusion of a political shake-up in the South, where voters are
so disgusted with the national Democratic Party that they're willing to throw
out senators who had previously relied on split-ticket voters to win. If a
Republican takeover by picking up seven Senate seats isn't a wave, it's awfully
close.
Democrats and their propaganda allies the New York Times
are scared of this fall’s elections; so scared they are even trying to redefine
“wave.”
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